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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.