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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."